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December 9, 2019

Policy Turns Stimulative
Ever since the great recession of 2008 –2009, major global central banks have been fighting to head off deflation and get inflation back up to 2% targets. The Fed, the European Central Bank (ECB), and the Bank of Japan have all failed in this effort as inflation in each region has consistently fallen short of this objective despite unprecedented measures, including negative interest rates, quantitative easing, and explicit forward guidance of lower-for-longer interest rates.

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December 2, 2019

Unemployment Unlikely To Increase Much in 2020, Consistent with Continued Expansion
The damage from Fed tightening has been meaningful, but absent upside inflation pressures, the Fed had the ability to reverse course before triggering a recession. Our expectations for a new upturn in the U.S. and global manufacturing cycle in response to central-bank easing and fiscal stimulus in a growing number of countries are supported by the wide range of improving economic data thus far, from a housing-sector revival, rising consumer and business expectations, and a third consecutive monthly increase in the Market manufacturing index in the U.S., to a stabilization in manufacturing conditions in the Eurozone and China.

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November 25, 2019

Going Granular: U.S. Trade at the State Level
Given the swirl of uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy, and the near-term strength of the U.S. dollar, U.S. exports have held up rather well this year. Indeed, through the first nine months of 2019, U.S. exports of goods and services (seasonally adjusted) were down just 0.4% from the same period a year ago. That is a respectable performance given all the noise around U.S. trade.

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November 18, 2019

Dueling Innovation Ecosystems
Investors are always looking for the best new idea. From a top-down perspective that means finding the countries with the most supportive innovation ecosystems and then digging deeper into sectors, industries and individual companies. The U.S.-China technology and trade conflict has brought two contrasting innovation ecosystems front and center as the countries race for economic supremacy.

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