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Market Updates

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May 23, 2022

We believe we are “starting our initial descent" toward a landing for the labor market and the overall business cycle. Plus the U.S. has been the target zone for inflows measured by foreigner flows into U.S. securities and foreign direct investment, and the secular bull case for commodities.

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May 16, 2022

Much of the adjustment to limited energy supply will likely continue to take place on the demand side, creating headwinds to global economic growth. Plus the markets are captive to a toxic trifecta, and market weakness is common ahead of midterm elections and post-election rebounds.

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May 9, 2022

Global growth is weakening fast, and the Fed is on track to make matters worse. Plus we outline a three-pronged approach to manage through volatility, and the decline in equity markets has shown that it's driven by a compression in valuation even as forward earnings are expected to grow.

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May 2, 2022

We expect the economic expansion to continue, and view monetary policy as still highly accommodative. Plus: tapping more, not fewer, external resources to ease supply chain issues; and FAANG stocks have been undergoing some of the most pronounced market rotations in recent history.

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April 25, 2022

Stagflation ahead—the markets are revaluing across sectors and asset classes to better align with the structural shift. Plus: Remain vigilant, but it may be too early to become cautious, and the ability to reinvest cash flows at higher yields is a welcome outcome of a transparent Fed.

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April 18, 2022

In our view, the possibility of aggressive quantitative tightening is now the biggest downside risk to the outlook. Plus globalization is under strain but will most likely bend not break, and the surge in coronavirus cases has added another headwind to China's growth outlook.

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April 11, 2022

Shifting supply-side shocks are creating persistent inflation, we would broadly categorize macro financial conditions as “flashing yellow," and we believe the divergence of yield curves is simply a glaring sign of how far behind the curve the Federal Reserve is at the moment.

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