Market Updates
September 3, 2024
This week we explore how rate cut expectations are broadening the equity market rally. We also discuss our view of conditions as a “buffalo market" and send a reminder “don't overlook earnings", since a strong earnings backdrop helps to reinforce our equity overweight.
August 26, 2024
Whether the economy enters a recession has often been the main determinant of whether a period of market weakness becomes deeper and more extended. Plus we foresee deficits remaining large and debt levels concerning, but also believe federal stimulus will be a tailwind for corporate earnings.
August 19, 2024
Bigger deficits mean a higher neutral rate, which helps explain why risk assets have been rising instead of falling as they normally do when monetary policy is restrictive. Plus the August market meltdown in perspective, and are there early signs of a thawing housing market?
August 12, 2024
We discuss some potential drivers of defense stocks, including geopolitical risks, the evolving nature of war and the role of private and smaller companies. Plus reports of the death of the 60/40 portfolio are greatly exaggerated, and implications for investors of falling global fertility rates.
August 5, 2024
A number of variables have converged to spook the markets in August, including concerns with the Federal Reserve being behind the curve in cutting rates. Plus we highlight three takeaways from the market’s shake-up in July, and ask whether the muni tax exemption is in jeopardy.
July 29, 2024
We've begun to see a gradual broadening out amongst sectors and different indexes, leaving room for new investor opportunities, and July's forecast shows market action supporting a well-diversified portfolio. Meanwhile, in second half of the decade, we focus on five mega forces that may shape market returns.
July 22, 2024
A significant global shortfall in available freshwater is projected over the coming years as demand increases. Plus the good news amid the bad news about America's declining fertility rate and why it matters, and the world can't go green without Asia.
July 15, 2024
Indicators point to the slow global economic expansion gaining traction in the second half of 2024 and 2025. Thinking longer-term, we see continued upside for U.S. Equities. And unless the doves of peace suddenly appear, global defense spending is likely headed higher.
July 8, 2024
Indicators for the labor market are already cooling, and its strength will be key to monetary policy in coming quarters. Plus concentration risk for both earnings and Equity performance are key to watch, and the nexus between big data and big energy supports America's global competitiveness.
July 1, 2024
We can expect developments on the election, the economy and policy to turn the temperature up for U.S. equities, while caution is still warranted for European equities. Plus we're watching whether the labor market continues to support healthy consumer activity.
June 24, 2024
Earnings revisions have bolstered global profits expectations and the case for risk assets, and an uptick in stock split announcements could potentially act as another tailwind for Equities this year. Plus ten reasons for optimism on America's birthday.
June 17, 2024
Think of the U.S. dollar as a leading indicator as to how investors are assessing risks associated with the November election. Plus higher-for-longer interest rates risk exacerbating fiscal imbalances, and there are measures to reduce the pressures spiraling deficits put on monetary policy.
