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Capital Market Outlook

June 23, 2025

IN THIS ISSUE

  • Macro Strategy — Another Day, Another Challenge: The U.S. economy appears in a mid-cycle “soft patch." Constraints on Federal Reserve easing have been relaxing though, and the fiscal impulse is set to turn capital expenditures-supportive in 2026.

  • Market View — Top of Mind: Gold, China's Mineral Chokehold, the U.S. Budget Deficit and U.S. Household Debt: Geopolitical turmoil and rising protectionism bode well for hard assets including gold and other commodities, in our view.

  • Thought of the Week — U.S. Labor Market Update: The Good, (not) Bad, and (a Little Bit) Ugly: While pockets of weakness may exist within the labor market, recent data has helped to ease concerns about a jobs-related slowdown in the economy.​

 

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