Capital Market Outlook
May 12, 2025
IN THIS ISSUE
- Macro Strategy — Policy Shock Meets Economic Resilience: The pain of adjustment to the new trade framework argues for portfolio diversification and focus on quality assets with pricing power, strong balance sheets, benefits from onshoring, and limited import sensitivity.
- Market View — Asia's Trade Challenges and the Risks for Emerging Markets: We expect individual markets within China, Taiwan and India to be driven by a range of factors including local reforms and stimulus measures, global investment flows, energy prices and domestic demand prospects.
- Thought of the Week — Bracing for the Coming Tourism Recession: Signs of a near-term slowdown in inbound tourism—a major U.S. service export—on the back of isolationist rhetoric from Washington and growing anti-American sentiment abroad.