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Capital Market Outlook

MAy 5, 2025

IN THIS ISSUE

  • Macro Strategy — The Inconvenient Truth: The Reordering of Global Trade — While Painful — is Long Overdue: In this environment, the most adaptable companies should thrive–as should nimble investors. The global reordering of trade is on.

  • Market View — The Price of Admission: The Fee for the First 100 Days: On an absolute basis, U.S. economic growth is contracting, while on a relative basis, overseas growth prospects are picking up, and so growth differentials globally have narrowed. All this together makes for a shift in the risk premium for investors.

  • Thought of the Week — Sell in May?: With May upon us, investors may start to hear the old saying: “Sell in May and go away." The adage refers to a seasonal market-timing strategy to sell stocks in the summer months and reinvest again in the fall. Looking at history, however, this seasonal pattern has not always held up.​

 

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