Market briefs
Breaking insights on the economy, market volatility, policy changes and geopolitical events.
Why ‘Made in China’ may be here to stay
SHRINKING CARGO SHIPMENTS from China to the U.S. — by one estimate, down 45% in mid-April from a year ago1 — have raised fears of what effect a full-blown trade war could have on the economy, U.S. consumers and investment markets. For clues, just look at the contents of your home, suggests Joe Quinlan, head of Market Strategy in the Chief Investment Office (CIO) for Merrill and Bank of America Private Bank.
“Imagine going from room to room and taking an inventory of everything labeled ‘Made in China,’” Quinlan says. You’ll quickly begin to understand the significant potential ripple effects that a prolonged trade war could have on consumers, corporations and investors, including, among other factors, higher prices and slower GDP growth. Real GDP has already dropped 0.3% in the first quarter of 2025, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.2
A recent CIO Capital Markets Outlook report considers the risks through the window of a typical American home. For example:
Your kitchen: “Toast some bread? Nearly all (97.7%) toasters come from China,” Quinlan says. The same goes for almost 88% of microwave ovens, 80% of blenders and 70% of refrigerators.3
Bed and bath: “China is a major supplier of U.S. bedframes, mattresses, quilts, comforters and pillows,” Quinlan says. “In your bathroom, the mirrors, blow dryers, shower heads, even the toilet, likely came from China.”3
Elsewhere: Enter the playroom — China makes about 75% of U.S. toys. Ditto for tennis shoes (nearly 74%) in the mudroom and family bikes (89%) in the garage. The list goes on. If you’re reading this on a smartphone, there’s an 81% chance you’re holding a Chinese import. “Heading to the beach this summer? That beach chair probably was made in China.”3
Reasons for compromise — on both sides
“Both countries have strong incentives to avoid a total trade breakdown,” Quinlan says. “Co-dependency runs deep.” U.S. consumers have benefited from inexpensive imports, and Chinese workers have higher employment and income. Despite a goods trade imbalance of $295 billion in China’s favor last year,4 “China remains one of the largest markets for U.S. goods,” he notes. “That’s why a total ‘divorce’ is not our base case.”
But even a trial separation might bring pain. Scarcity and higher prices could hamper U.S. consumer spending and corporate earnings. Another risk for companies: “U.S. factories are full of Chinese parts and components, all of which may be harder to find,” Quinlan says.
What can investors do?
With the tariff landscape so uncertain, investors should expect volatility and avoid trying to “time” markets, Quinlan suggests. “Stay invested in a diversified portfolio including high-quality, dividend-paying stocks in areas such as utilities and defense,” he adds. “If it feels like we’re staring into an abyss, keep in mind that markets and the economy have fully recovered from even greater uncertainties — including, most recently, the global pandemic.”
For more on U.S. imports from China and the potential impact of tariffs on the markets, read the CIO report, “Decoupling from China won’t be easy: Here is one way to think about it.” And be sure to tune in regularly to the CIO’s Market Update audiocast series for latest insights.
1CBS News, “China exports to U.S. plunge as tariffs hit, leading some experts to warn of product shortages,” April 30, 2025.
2U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Gross Domestic Product, 1st Quarter 2025, April 30, 2025
3Census Bureau. Data refers to 2024, as of April 2025.
4Morningstar, “U.S. ran the biggest trade deficits with China and Mexico in 2024. What about Canada?” Feb. 5, 2025.
Timely answers to your volatility questions
ANOTHER WEEK, ANOTHER ROUND OF VOLATILITY. With markets continuing their wild swings on April 21, investors in search of stability have some big questions: Are we past “peak uncertainty”? What’s ahead for the economy? How can I manage my portfolio?
Watch the video above as Chris Hyzy, Chief Investment Officer for Merrill and Bank of America Private Bank, shares perspectives on these and other pressing issues with Head of Portfolio Strategy Marci McGregor.
Check back here for frequent updates on markets and the economy and tune in to the CIO’s Market Update audiocast series for latest CIO insights.
Tariff update: Why investors shouldn’t bail on bonds
AS UNCERTAINTY AROUND TARIFFS CONTINUES, churn in the equity market has been the primary focus for many investors. But the bond market is signaling equally if not more troubling signs that tariffs could do damage to the global economy. “Investors like to think of the bond market as boringly predictable. You can’t say that right now,” says David Litvack, tax-exempt strategist for the Chief Investment Office (CIO), Merrill and Bank of America Private Bank.
Normally, during heightened volatility, as the price of stocks drops investors flee to the perceived stability of bonds, and bond prices rise. During this latest bout of tariff-related volatility, however, investors have been abandoning bonds, causing their prices to fall and yields, or interest rates, to rise. “In early April, just prior to the announced 90-day pause on across-the-board tariffs for many countries, the market saw a sharp selloff in Treasury bonds, causing yields to climb,” says Marci McGregor, head of Portfolio Strategy for the CIO. That selloff has continued, creating signs of liquidity stress in the Treasury market. Such correlation between the stock and bond markets is rare, and was most recently seen during the pandemic, she notes.
What’s behind the bond selloff?
Several factors could be causing investors to bail on bonds, says Litvack. The latest volatility may have prompted some investors to sell Treasurys for cash as losses in the stock market built up. Continuing uncertainty around tariff policies might be causing others to move towards investments outside the U.S. And, analysts believe, some selling may be the result of foreign governments’ selling of Treasurys as a form of retaliation.1
Meanwhile, fears that Congress might soon curtail federal tax exemptions on municipal bonds has been driving a selloff in munis, say Litvack. A January House Ways and Means Committee report listed muni tax exemptions among more than 200 possible cuts that could help pay for renewing the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which is due to expire at the end of 2025.2
How investors can respond
Muni investors should view the selloff as a potential opportunity, Litvack believes. “Congress is now beginning to debate potential spending and tax cuts as they negotiate the administration’s budget, and we believe muni tax exemptions will remain largely intact,” he says. While some muni subsectors, such as bonds issued by colleges and universities, could be at risk, there appears to be bipartisan support for maintaining the exemption, he believes. “In the event that legislation is passed that reduces future tax-exempt issuance, that should increase the valuations of existing muni bonds, because of their scarcity.”
“Fixed income is an important diversifier in any investor’s portfolio — and diversification is critical during periods of volatility,” adds McGregor. Should liquidity stress become a problem in the Treasury market, the Federal Reserve has tools in its toolkit to manage it, she believes. “And rising yields could make bonds very attractive, leading to a potential rally ahead.”
For more on fixed income in today’s markets, read the latest “Fixed Income Spotlight“ and check out “Is the muni tax exemption at risk?” in the CIO’s March 31, 2025 Capital Market Outlook.
Volatility continues as U.S.-China trade war escalates
STOCKS FELL SHARPLY ON APRIL 10 after an historic surge the day before. Investors traded relief over a 90-day U.S. tariff pause on most countries for intensified worries over a newly announced 145% tariff on China and the potential for an all-out trade war between the world’s two largest economies.1
“Along with stocks, we’ve seen sharp bond volatility in recent days, including a selloff in Treasurys, causing yields to rise,” says Marci McGregor, head of Portfolio Strategy for the Chief Investment Office (CIO), Merrill and Bank of America Private Bank. “Shifting policies have created a fog of uncertainty.
A world of unknowns
As first-quarter earnings season begins, “Companies, unable to gauge what trade disruptions could mean for future earnings and capital investments, will likely remain guarded until they have more information,” she says. Even in the best case — a U.S.-China reconciliation — corporate growth this year will likely be slower than previous expectations.
Yet some positive signs shine through the fog of uncertainty. “Cooling inflation data and strong labor numbers tell us the U.S. economy was on solid ground prior to the tariff announcements,” McGregor says. And historically markets have recovered relatively quickly after the S&P 500 index has fallen into correction territory. “In all of the other five times that’s happened since 1950, markets were up six months, a year, and two years later — with gains averaging 53.1% after two years.”2
Have a defensive plan — and a shopping list — ready
With market gyrations likely to continue amid these uncertainties, “Investors can take some control by preparing tactically for the short term and strategically for the long term,” McGregor says.
Short term. “The next few months may be a good time to play defense,” she adds. Investors might consider defensive stocks such as utilities, as well as dividend-paying and value-oriented stocks.
Long term. Looking ahead, investors can help position themselves for when the trade uncertainty recedes. “Have a ‘shopping list’ ready,” she suggests. Volatility may offer a chance to buy assets that support your long-term strategy, at attractive prices. “Uncertainty offers potential opportunities to rebalance, especially if your portfolio drifts from your targeted allocations,” she says. “Staying balanced and well-diversified is essential.”
For more insights from McGregor on current market conditions, listen to the April 10 CIO Market Update audiocast, and check back here for regular updates.
Two possible scenarios as tariff uncertainties play out
MARKETS CONTINUED TO SWING WILDLY on April 7 as investors struggled to process a world of uncertainty over tariff policies.1 “The U.S. tariffs announced last week were far higher than expected and based on formulas investors haven’t seen before,” says Chris Hyzy, Chief Investment Officer for Merrill and Bank of America Private Bank. Market worries include a potential growth and demand shock to the economy, higher inflation and escalating trade wars, he adds. “It is possible now to expect 0% earnings growth for the year if all of these uncertainties last into the summer months," Hyzy says.
Considering the many unknowns, including retaliatory tariffs and possible negotiations underway, “It’s impossible to gauge how long high tariffs might last, and what the endgame is,” Hyzy says. While swift negotiations could reset tariff policies and support market recovery, an extended trade war raises fears of recession and stagflation — stagnant growth and higher prices. As events unfold, Hyzy notes, investors should avoid making sudden decisions based on headlines.
What’s next? Three signs to watch for
In the days to come, here are some possible developments the Chief Investment Office (CIO) will be tracking:
- A changing narrative. “We’ll need some positive news on trade deals and policy ‘resets.’ In order to stem the tide, you have to change the narrative that sparked the fear,” says Hyzy.
- Corporate earnings. “In the medium term, we need earnings to hold up better than expected,” Hyzy says. “Lower oil prices and lower interest rates could help to balance out lower demand stemming from trade uncertainties.”
- Employment. “As of now, the job market does not support recession fears. We’ll be closely watching employment figures in the coming months,” he adds.
Two possible scenarios
“For the next six months-plus, we see two potential scenarios with equal likelihood,” Hyzy says.
Scenario 1. Countries scramble to negotiate substantive trade deals that bring tariffs down. “Bond yields would stay low but drift up slightly, and equity markets would recover some of the losses, led by technology, financials and consumer discretionary sectors.” Even in this positive scenario, economic growth will likely take time to recover.
Scenario 2. The global standoff continues without substantive trade deals until countries realize economies are heading towards recession. “We could see bond yields, oil prices and commodities fall and stocks take longer to recover. The worry shifts to a steeper and extended downturn in corporate earnings.”
How you can prepare
With events so fluid, investors should prepare for further volatility as well as “positive surprises” as trade negotiations unfold, Hyzy advises. Exiting markets one day could prevent you from realizing gains if markets rebound the next. Now may be a good time to speak with your advisor if you work with one. “At a time when new information is coming in every hour, it’s important to have a plan and stay disciplined,” he says. Long-term investors may find potential opportunities to add to their portfolios during declines, Hyzy adds. You might also consider dollar-cost averaging,2 which could enable you to buy relatively more shares at lower cost.
For continuing insights from Chris Hyzy on tariff-related volatility, be sure to listen to our latest CIO Market Update audiocast, and check back here for regular updates on market conditions.
1The Wall Street Journal, “Trump threatens additional 50% tariff on China,” April 7, 2025.
2A program of regular investment cannot assure a profit or protect against a loss. A continuous or periodic investment plan involves investment in shares over time regardless of fluctuating price levels. You should consider your financial ability to continue purchasing shares during periods of low price levels.
Navigating tariff turbulence
WHAT JUST HAPPENED? A tariff on nearly all U.S. imports, announced April 2, sparked a global stock plunge the following day.1 In early morning trading, Dow futures were down 1,200 or, 2.8%.2 The tariffs set a baseline of 10% but are far higher for many countries — including 34% for China, 24% for Japan and 20% for the European Union.3
“Though asset markets have been preparing for some time, the announcement was more aggressive than consensus expectations,” says Chris Hyzy, Chief Investment Officer, Merrill and Bank of America Private Bank. A Chief Investment Office Investments Insights report, “Eyes Wide Open,” analyzes the current situation and what may be ahead.
Our take on what this means
“We believe market volatility is here to stay until we better understand how all of this plays out,” Hyzy says. Negotiations and deals among trading partners may lead to tariff adjustments and a settling of volatility, he adds. In the meantime, markets will likely experience a flight to safety.
“The largest concern now is the potential for a growth shock,” Hyzy says. As yet unanswered questions include the overall impact on global trade, potential secondary shocks to the services sector and possible monetary policy effects, he adds. “Despite uncertainties that may last for weeks or months, we believe the U.S. economy will be able to stave off a recession in the near term.” Corporate earnings, while potentially vulnerable to extended high tariffs, remain strong and U.S. consumers resilient, he believes.
How should investors respond?
“During this time of assessment, it is important to play both defense and offense,” Hyzy suggests. “Stay calm, diversify, and build a plan to reposition and rebalance your portfolio to take advantage of the improved prices that this uncertainty has created.”
Read the Investment Insights, “Eyes Wide Open”. Check here for regular updates on market conditions and be sure to listen to our latest CIO Market Update audiocast.
Where could stocks go from here? Watch these signals.
SO FAR, IT’S BEEN ONE OF THOSE YEARS: Markets rebounded after a mid-March correction,1 but they continued to be volatile into the end of the first quarter over tariffs, inflation and other concerns. “We expect ongoing choppiness as markets try to repair themselves and adjust to policy uncertainties,” says Kirsten Cabacungan, investment strategist for the Chief Investment Office (CIO), Merrill and Bank of America Private Bank. “Yet, amid the tumult, we see encouraging signals that stocks could start to recover ahead.”
Signal 1: Bearish investors
Bullish versus bearish attitudes in the American Association of Individual Investors Sentiment Survey plummeted to -40% in recent weeks — far below the long-term average of 6.5%.2 “While that sounds like bad news, the stock market tends to rebound on the heels of investor sentiment hitting rock bottom,” says Cabacungan. “Historically, the S&P 500 is up 90% of the time both six months and a full year later, with gains averaging 15.1% after six months and 22.3% after a year.”3
Signal 2: Market broadening
Though a few mega technology stocks have dominated equity markets in recent years, “returns in 2025 have broadened to include a wider array of sectors, styles and countries,” she says. In recent back-to-back sessions, more than 90% of companies on the S&P 500 rose on the same day.4 “The last time that happened was the week before the bear market trough in October 2022, which kicked off the most recent bull market advance,” Cabacungan adds. S&P 500 sectors like energy and healthcare, which struggled in 2024, have outperformed in early 2025.
What this could mean for your portfolio
“Volatility and market broadening both underscore the importance of diversification across and within asset classes,” Cabacungan says. Temporary downturns could provide opportunities to add underrepresented sectors. “While we still favor U.S. equities, you might consider adding exposure to international markets, which recently have outperformed the U.S. for the first time in years,” she says. An advisor can help ensure that any portfolio decisions align with your long-term goals.
For a closer look at signals pointing to a potential recovery, read “What comes after the market correction?” in the CIO’s Capital Market Outlook and check out the latest CIO Market Update audiocast.
The rebalancing act behind the latest volatility
SO, WHAT JUST HAPPENED? Equity markets dropped on Monday amid growing concern over the economy. Technology stocks led the decline, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index falling by nearly 4%, and the S&P 500 down 2.7%.1 Many news reports attributed the volatility to concerns around tariffs and recent comments from the administration about a possible recession.2
Our take on what this means
“While some Wall Street observers have raised the probability of a recession to nearly one in two, we don’t see it that way,” says Chris Hyzy, Chief Investment Officer for Merrill and Bank of America Private Bank. “We see this, first and foremost, as a major rebalancing as market sentiment shifts away from growth areas, such as technology, which have dominated in recent years, towards more defensive sectors like healthcare, utilities and consumer staples.” He adds, “We believe this market drawdown, accelerated by profit-taking, is driven by economic growth worries, which in our view are exaggerated.”
How should investors respond?
It’s more common than not to experience one or more corrections of 10% or more in any given year. “While volatility is always unsettling, investors should avoid sudden decisions to sell assets,” Hyzy says. “We view this weakness as a potential buying opportunity and a time for investors to consider rebalancing their portfolios,” he explains. “Now may be a time to explore diversifying into Europe and other developed markets, which are finally becoming more attractive after years of underperforming relative to the U.S.”
For a deeper dive into what’s driving the markets now and how you can consider responding, read the latest Investment Insights report from the Chief Investment Office, “From off the horse to back in the saddle,” and check out the latest CIO Market Update audiocast.
Tit-for-tat tariffs are here. What should investors do?
THE OTHER SHOE HAS FALLEN. After a 30-day delay, the U.S. imposed threatened tariffs of 25% on imports from Canada and Mexico and increased tariffs on China early this week. America’s three largest trading partners responded by announcing plans to impose retaliatory tariffs, causing market volatility to rise sharply,1 despite reports that a compromise might be reached, limiting the number of sectors subject to tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada. Later in the week, the administration gave Mexico and Canada temporary reprieves on some goods, announcing that imports trading under the rules of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement would be exempt through April 2.2
Amid all the uncertainty, “investors are assessing the impact of these new tariffs on U.S. growth, business confidence and corporate earnings,” says Joe Quinlan, head of Market Strategy in the Chief Investment Office (CIO) for Merrill and Bank of America Private Bank. In a recent CIO Capital Market Outlook, Quinlan notes that the U.S. economy, which depends much less on trade than on the extraordinary power of consumer consumption, could be relatively well-positioned to withstand any negative impacts. Below, he offers insights on what investors could expect next and how they might respond.
Expect more turbulence ahead. A trade war could lead to global supply-chain disruptions, lower corporate earnings, higher prices for goods and services, higher-for-longer inflation and a pause in the global easing of interest rates, Quinlan says.
Focus on high-quality companies. In that environment, investors should consider companies with strong balance sheets, Quinlan adds. “Look to strike a balance between growth stocks, largely in technology, and value sectors such as healthcare, industrials and financials,” he suggests. “Dividend-paying stocks also look more attractive now, as do defense and cyber security leaders.”
Consider alternative assets* and be selective about fixed income. Quinlan suggests thinking about alternative assets such as gold and other commodities, real estate and private credit. If interest rates rise, that could support allocations to investment-grade bonds, Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) and short-duration bonds.
Combine caution with calm. Amid today’s considerable uncertainty, Quinlan advises investors to stay focused on their goals. “If you work with an advisor, speak with them about the best way forward,” he says. “In this era of shifting dynamics, nimbleness and rebalancing remain prerequisites.”
Stay connected with the latest insights by tuning in to the CIO’s Market Update audiocast series.
TEST YOUR TRADE KNOWLEDGE
Tap + to select correct answer and learn more
True or false: U.S. exports of goods and services account for just 11% of gross domestic product (GDP)?
*Alternative investments are intended for qualified investors only. Alternative investments such as derivatives, hedge funds, private equity funds and funds of funds can result in higher return potential but also higher loss potential. There are special risks associated with an investment in commodities, such as gold, including market price fluctuations, regulatory change, interest rate change, credit risk, economic changes and the impact of adverse political or financial factors.
1The Wall Street Journal, “Trump's Tariffs on Canada and Mexico take effect, with added duties on China,” March 4, 2025.
2The New York Times, “Trump Administration Live Updates: In reversal, most new tariffs on Mexico and Canada suspended,” March 6, 2025.
4CEIC Data, “United States Private Consumption: % of GDP,” December 2024.
Tariffs’ impact on the markets? It’s complicated.
BEWARE OF SIMPLE ANSWERS. “While political disputes often center on bilateral trade imbalances, today’s global economy is complex, with many moving parts,” says Joe Quinlan, head of Market Strategy in the Chief Investment Office (CIO) for Merrill and Bank of America Private Bank. “You need to consider how trade has evolved, and which sectors may be at risk.”
With potential tariffs likely on the table for the foreseeable future, the February 10 CIO Capital Market Outlook unpacks some of these complexities and offers insights on what they might mean for the economy, the markets and your investments.
Separating the news from the noise: 3 points to keep in mind
First, the U.S. economy is somewhat insulated from potential impacts: “Though it’s one the world’s largest trading nations, the U.S. is less trade-dependent than many economies in Europe, Asia and emerging markets,” Quinlan says. Exports comprise just 11% of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP), compared with more than 50% of European Union GDP.1 “Still, sustained, far-reaching tariffs could drag corporate earnings and U.S. economic growth and spur inflation,” he cautions.
Second, individual sectors may be at risk, and they bear watching: Trade today is less about imports versus exports than intricate cross-border investments and partnerships. “Tariffs and counter-tariffs could throw sand in the gears of U.S. multinationals,” he says. “Autos, pharmaceuticals, oil and gas and semiconductors may be at risk, along with retail and the food and beverage sector.”
Third, small businesses are not immune: “While investors may assume trade disputes affect only the largest companies, smaller and mid-sized businesses have reaped the rewards of a world trading system that is more open than closed,” Quinlan says. “If anything, sustained tariffs could be harder on them than on large-cap companies.”
The bottom line for investors: Despite the flurry of headlines, the tariff picture remains uncertain and evolving and the U.S. economy is resilient, Quinlan says. Investors should keep a close watch on specific sectors of the economy but avoid making sudden decisions. “Stay focused on your goals, speak with your advisor, and use temporary volatility as a way to strategically add to your portfolio,” he suggests.
One final note: Inflation ticked up 0.5%, slightly more than expected, in January, according to the Labor Department.2 For insights on the potential impact of tariffs on inflation moving forward, read “Where We Stand: CIO Tariff Scorecard” in the February 10 issue of Capital Market Outlook.
Competition heats up in Artificial Intelligence
THERE’S A NEW AI KID ON THE BLOCK — China-based startup DeepSeek — and it’s causing some angst among investors and U.S.-based companies in the AI space. Technology stocks tumbled on January 27, shortly after DeepSeek introduced its latest large-language model, a powerful chatbot reportedly consuming less power and developed at lower cost than existing models.
Market concerns may be overblown, believes Chris Hyzy, Chief Investment Officer for Merrill and Bank of America Private Bank. “This new competitor is part of an evolving tech evolution holding significant promise for the economy and long-term investors.” In fact, he notes, “Competition should only help to accelerate innovation.” Taking up the challenge, a number of companies involved in the AI space made a point of confirming their capital spending commitments on earnings calls after the DeepSeek announcement last week.
Watch the video above for more of Hyzy’s thoughts on risks and opportunities in the AI space and why he believes the U.S. is well-positioned to remain the global leader in AI innovation. You’ll find a deeper dive into the disruption caused by DeepSeek and what it might mean for your investments in this week’s Capital Market Outlook.
What’s behind the Fed’s rate-cutting pause?
AFTER THREE HEADLINE-GRABBING interest rate cuts in 2024, the Federal Reserve (the Fed) concluded its January meeting on Wednesday, January 29, by announcing that it would hold its benchmark interest rate steady at 4.25% to 4.5%,1 offering little indication of when it might cut again. The pause was widely expected, and markets largely took it in stride. “The lack of drama was intentional. We believe the Fed wanted this meeting to be a ‘yawn,’” says Chris Hyzy, Chief Investment Officer, Merrill and Bank of America Private Bank.
“Market expectations have shifted significantly in the past couple of months from the original four cuts in 2025 to one — or none,” Hyzy adds. Wednesday’s widely anticipated pause reinforces that “any additional cuts will be driven by hard data as the Fed balances its twin mandates of controlling stubborn inflation and maintaining low unemployment,” he says. A recent rise in 10-year Treasury yields, for example, reflected a fundamentally strong economy and ongoing inflation concerns, both likely factors in slowing the pace of cuts.
For more on interest rates, bond yields and inflation, watch “What’s up with 10-year Treasury yields?” In this conversation, Hyzy talks with Matthew Diczok, head of Fixed Income Strategy for the Chief Investment Office, Merrill and Bank of America Private Bank, about moves investors can consider in the current rate environment. You can catch Hyzy’s market insights weekly on the CIO’s Market Update audiocast.
Are interest rate cuts off the table this year?
INVESTORS EXPECTING A PAIR OF INTEREST RATE CUTS by the Federal Reserve (the Fed) in 2025 are now adjusting to the prospect of a single cut — or none. A surprisingly strong labor report released January 10 showed the economy adding 256,000 jobs.1 While good news for workers and the economy, the report intensifies ongoing concerns over sticky inflation.
“With inflation likely averaging around 3%, rather than the 2% target, the Fed has shifted from a rate-cutting approach to a wait-and-see, watching from the sidelines approach,” says Chris Hyzy, Chief Investment Officer, Merrill and Bank of America Private Bank. “Any future cuts will be driven by data rather than by market hopes and expectations.” Based on current data, BofA Global Research now believes the Fed could put cuts on hold for 2025, Hyzy notes.
Here's our take on what this means
The delays are a major disappointment for investors who originally expected up to four additional cuts in 2025.2 Lower rates reduce the cost of borrowing for businesses and consumers — a boon for rate-sensitive industries like housing, automobiles and small businesses. Yet after a years-long battle with inflation, the Fed is wary of cuts that could prompt a new spike in prices. They’ll be closely monitoring economic data such as inflation, housing prices and unemployment, as well as financial markets. Some reason for cautious optimism: Core inflation and wholesale prices both rose by a lower-than-expected 0.2% in December from the previous month.3
The outlook for investors
Rate uncertainties have contributed to recent stock market weakness, Hyzy notes. “After historic gains in 2023 and 2024, the equity ‘fizzle’ that started in December could extend into February, with periodic volatility.” At the same time, “investors should avoid reading too much into the timing of individual cuts,” Hyzy believes. “As the year progresses, we expect markets to refocus on the fundamental strengths of the U.S. economy, such as consumer spending, innovation and, especially, corporate earnings,” he adds. “We still expect double-digit earnings growth for 2025 into 2026.” Investors should look for potential buying opportunities amid early-year volatility and emphasize diversification across and within asset classes.
1CNN Business, “Job growth skyrocketed in December, boosting one of the strongest labor markets in US history,” Jan. 10, 2025.
2Yahoo Finance, “Fed cuts rates by quarter point, scales back cuts for 2025,” Dec. 19, 2024.
3CNBC, “10-year Treasury yield pulls back after core inflation is light in December,” Jan. 15, 2025; CNBC, “Inflation watch: Wholesale prices rose 0.2% in December, less than expected.” Jan. 14, 2025.
Could the bull stumble? 5 potential risks to watch
STRONG CORPORATE EARNINGS, DISRUPTIVE INNOVATIONS and resilient consumers: It all adds up to a favorable environment for U.S. equities and investors in 2025 and beyond. So, what could go wrong?
“Markets are never linear,” says Joe Quinlan, head of Market Strategy in the Chief Investment Office (CIO) for Merrill and Bank of America Private Bank. “Even when things look bullish, it’s important to consider risks that could cause the bull to stumble.” Below are five possible scenarios to keep an eye on.
Put these possible scenarios on your watch list
1. Higher-than-expected inflation delays and derails rate cuts, rattling the market near-term. Inflationary expectations have shifted higher in early 2025, triggering a rethink and reset about U.S. monetary policy. The market is now pricing in one rate cut this year,1 while BofA Global Research economists expect the Fed to pause altogether in 2025.
2. Gridlock thwarts policies. Many expect single-party control in Washington to bring market-friendly tax and regulation changes in 2025. Still, enacting legislation is complex, especially with a slim House majority, and the shape and timing remain fluid.
3. AI payoff takes a while. Amid massive capital investment in artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure, just 6% of U.S. firms currently use AI to boost productivity and produce goods and services.2 While the transformative benefits are real, an open question is how quickly AI will drive substantial economic growth.
4. Relations with China worsen. With the U.S. and China already at odds over trade, technology and Taiwan, tariffs and retaliations could deteriorate a relationship still vital to both economies.
5. Deficits unnerve markets. A dynamic economy and global appetite for U.S. Treasurys have so far enabled the federal government to manage its finances despite surging budget deficits. Without budget reforms, though, growing deficit concerns could disrupt markets.
Investor Rx: Take a balanced approach to risk
“Be aware of risks but don’t be constrained by them,” Quinlan advises. “Investors should expect ‘chop and churn’ and stay invested as these forces play out. Given the underlying positives, market pullbacks may offer opportunities to add high-quality assets that fit with your long-term strategy.”
For regular updates on potential risks and opportunities throughout the year, tune in to the CIO’s Market Update audiocast series.
Important Disclosures
Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Opinions are as of the date of these articles and are subject to change.
Bank of America, Merrill, their affiliates, and advisors do not provide legal, tax, or accounting advice. Clients should consult their legal and/or tax advisors before making any financial decisions.
This information should not be construed as investment advice and is subject to change. It is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to be either a specific offer by Bank of America, Merrill or any affiliate to sell or provide, or a specific invitation for a consumer to apply for, any particular retail financial product or service that may be available.
The Chief Investment Office (CIO) provides thought leadership on wealth management, investment strategy and global markets; portfolio management solutions; due diligence; and solutions oversight and data analytics. CIO viewpoints are developed for Bank of America Private Bank, a division of Bank of America, N.A., (“Bank of America") and Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith Incorporated (“MLPF&S" or “Merrill"), a registered broker-dealer, registered investment adviser and a wholly owned subsidiary of Bank of America Corporation (“BofA Corp.”).
All recommendations must be considered in the context of an individual investor’s goals, time horizon, liquidity needs and risk tolerance. Not all recommendations will be in the best interest of all investors.
Investments have varying degrees of risk. Some of the risks involved with equity securities include the possibility that the value of the stocks may fluctuate in response to events specific to the companies or markets, as well as economic, political or social events in the U.S. or abroad. Bonds are subject to interest rate, inflation and credit risks. Treasury bills are less volatile than longer-term fixed income securities and are guaranteed as to timely payment of principal and interest by the U.S. government. Investments in a certain industry or sector may pose additional risk due to lack of diversification and sector concentration.
Investments in foreign securities involve special risks, including foreign currency risk and the possibility of substantial volatility due to adverse political, economic or other developments. These risks are magnified for investments made in emerging markets. There are special risks associated with an investment in commodities, including market price fluctuations, regulatory changes, interest rate changes, credit risk, economic changes and the impact of adverse political or financial factors.
Income from investing in municipal bonds is generally exempt from Federal and state taxes for residents of the issuing state. While the interest income is tax-exempt, any capital gains distributed are taxable to the investor. Income for some investors may be subject to the Federal Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT).
Retirement and Personal Wealth Solutions is the institutional retirement business of Bank of America Corporation (“BofA Corp.”) operating under the name “Bank of America.” Investment advisory and brokerage services are provided by wholly owned non-bank affiliates of BofA Corp., including Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith Incorporated (also referred to as "MLPF&S" or "Merrill"), a dually registered broker-dealer and investment adviser and Member SIPC. Banking activities may be performed by wholly owned banking affiliates of BofA Corp., including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC.
You have choices about what to do with your 401(k) or other type of plan-sponsored accounts. Depending on your financial circumstances, needs and goals, you may choose to roll over to an IRA or convert to a Roth IRA, roll over a 401(k) from a prior employer to a 401(k) at your new employer, take a distribution, or leave the account where it is. Each choice may off er different investments and services, fees and expenses, withdrawal options, required minimum distributions, tax treatment (particularly with reference to employer stock), and provide different protection from creditors and legal judgments. These are complex choices and should be considered with care.
Diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets.
Sustainable and Impact Investing and/or Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) managers may take into consideration factors beyond traditional financial information to select securities, which could result in relative investment performance deviating from other strategies or broad market benchmarks, depending on whether such sectors or investments are in or out of favor in the market. Further, ESG strategies may rely on certain values based criteria to eliminate exposures found in similar strategies or broad market benchmarks, which could also result in relative investment performance deviating.
