Market Decode: Will the U.S. economy enter the “R” zone this year?
Chances of a recession are fading, says the Chief Investment Office. Watch the video to find out why.
AFTER WEEKS OF TARIFF-RELATED BUSINESS DISRUPTIONS, economic uncertainties and market volatility, ongoing trade talks have eased widespread fears of a 2025 recession. “Beyond those encouraging signs, there are other reasons to believe we’ll avoid a recession,” says Marci McGregor, head of Portfolio Strategy for the Chief Investment Office (CIO), Merrill and Bank of America Private Bank. “At a difficult moment, the U.S. economy has shown remarkable resilience.”
In the video above, McGregor explains why and how consumer spending and the labor market have outperformed expectations despite widespread fears that both might wither in the wake of trade disputes. While a recession could still happen, the power of the U.S. economy and higher individual wealth relative to liabilities have buffered the economy, McGregor says.
For fresh insights on the markets and economy, read the CIO’s weekly Capital Market Outlook and tune in regularly to the CIO's Market Update audiocast series.
Important disclosures
The opinions expressed are as of 5/28/2025 and are subject to change.
Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
The Chief Investment Office (CIO) provides thought leadership on wealth management, investment strategy and global markets; portfolio management solutions; due diligence; and solutions oversight and data analytics. CIO viewpoints are developed for Bank of America Private Bank, a division of Bank of America, N.A., (“Bank of America”) and Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith Incorporated (“MLPF&S” or “Merrill”), a registered broker-dealer, registered investment adviser and a wholly owned subsidiary of Bank of America Corporation (“BofA Corp.”).
