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Capital Market Outlook

July 28, 2025

IN THIS ISSUE

  • Macro Strategy — Look Before You Leap: A Few Items Investors Should Know About Investing Overseas: Foreign markets are more concentrated than U.S. indexes; many foreign indexes don't reflect the real economy; the U.S. dollar is a key swing factor in foreign returns; and the “emerging market" label can be greatly misleading.

  • Market View — Is there a Market Breadth Problem?: Sustained improvement will likely depend on less uncertainty around the macro and earnings growth picture going forward, especially around the impact of tariff policy. That could take some time to fade as policy negotiations continue.

  • Thought of the Week — Not So Ominous: The Weaker Dollar as Both a Tailwind and a Potential Offset: The weaker dollar increases the price competitiveness of goods and services abroad as the profits earned in local currency are worth more in dollar terms when repatriated back to the U.S.​

 

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