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Capital Market Outlook

October 20, 2025

IN THIS ISSUE

  • Macro Strategy — Manufacturing Rebound Soft But Poised To Strengthen: Rate cuts, fading tariff headwinds, and fiscal incentives are expected to benefit manufacturing activity and economic growth beyond current pockets of strength, likely buoying risk assets in coming quarters.

  • Market View — Should Markets Be Concerned About Dollar Debasement?: Despite growing debasement concerns, we do not view the surge in precious metals prices as portending a period of disorderly decline for the U.S. dollar. Precious metals and precious metal producers should continue to benefit, particularly as global central banks diversify their reserves.

  • Thought of the Week — Trick or Treat: What Could Spook This Market?: Developments that could potentially spook this market in the near-term include elevated trade tensions and the potential hit to earnings, concerns about the durability of Artificial Intelligence spending and the outlook for monetization, and spillover effects of a prolonged government shutdown.​

 

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