Capital Market Outlook
February 23, 2026
IN THIS ISSUE
- Macro Strategy — Beyond Goods—The Expected Boom in China's Knowledge-Intensive Exports: China's trade has entered a new phase, shifting from dominance in goods exports to rapid growth in knowledge‑intensive services—especially technology and Artificial Intelligence—supporting a constructive outlook on its leading tech firms.
- Market View — In Times of Uncertainty, Choose Fundamentals Over Fear: Amid headline-driven uncertainty, resilient fundamentals—from strong market breadth and corporate profits to healthy household balance sheets and continued foreign investment—argue for choosing fundamentals over fear.
- Thought of the Week — The Sentiment-Spending Disconnect: Despite weak consumer sentiment, resilient spending, supportive historical patterns, and expected 2026 tailwinds suggest the U.S. consumer outlook is more constructive than surveys alone imply.
