Capital Market Outlook
September 8, 2025
IN THIS ISSUE
- Macro Strategy — On Cars, Quality, and S&P 500 Valuations: Structural changes in the economy, technological advancement, much higher free cash flow margins than in the past, and a relatively contained interest and inflation environment suggest the historical S&P 500 price-to-earnings ratio is a misleading valuation metric.
- Market View — The Lawyers vs. the Engineers: A Different Lens on U.S.-China Competition: The U.S. needs to build more, while China needs to build better.
- Thought of the Week — In the Emerging Markets Universe, Can the Elephant Reclaim its Leadership?: Global trade policy developments bear watching, and a de-escalation between the U.S. and India would benefit the latter's efforts to emerge as a competitive supply chain alternative to China.