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Investment Strategy Overview (ISO)

The Chief Investment Office outlook on the economy, the markets, investment trends, portfolio considerations and asset-class weightings.

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A Rising Tide Leads to a Great(er) Divide


Chris, how would you describe the current economic environment?

According to many market watchers, we are in the late stages of the business cycle with a rising probability of a recession. That view is understandable; after all, more than a decade has passed since the economic collapse of 2008, and, because typical cycles last only five or six years, some economists think it is time. In addition, others point to the slump in manufacturing activity or global trade and suggest growth is deteriorating.

However, rather than one long business cycle, we believe there have been a series of “mini waves,” and we are in the early to mid-stages of the fourth mini wave since the Great Recession. Our view is largely based on current economic conditions, many of which are not typical of a cycle’s late stages historically.

As for the U.S. economy, we expect a soft landing and economic growth at trend, or slightly above, with new highs likely in U.S. equities, and rates that remain low or bottom out, at least for now.

Christopher Hyzy Chief Investment Officer