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Capital Market Outlook

May 18, 2026

IN THIS ISSUE

  • Macro Strategy — Expansion Likely to Continue Despite Inflation Flareup: Inflation is being temporarily lifted by energy supply shocks but is likely to ease as fundamentals remain supportive, leaving the Federal Reserve on hold and the economic expansion durable, which is constructive for risk assets.

  • Market View — Has Europe's Equity Performance Peaked?: Europe's early outperformance faded in 2026 amid geopolitical pressures, but despite near‑term caution we maintain a strategic allocation given selective opportunity across countries, sectors and industries.

  • Thought of the Week — Rethinking Summer Seasonality: Despite seasonal caution, U.S. Equities enter the summer with a constructive outlook supported by strong momentum and a decade of historically favorable May–July performance, even as episodic volatility remains possible.​

 

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