IN THIS ISSUE

• Macro Strategy — From Balance to Strain Under an Energy Shock and Back: Slowing growth, softening labor demand, and contained inflation are increasing the likelihood that the Federal Reserve resumes policy easing later in the year.
  
  
• Market View — Thinking Long-Term: Historical Perspective on Market Volatility: Market volatility  has often been temporary, and staying invested with a disciplined, long‑term approach could help avoid missing recovery gains.
  
  
• Thought of the Week — Earnings Season Amid a Fragile Truce: Markets appear to be pricing out worst‑case geopolitical scenarios, with resilient earnings, supportive consumer fundamentals, and expectations for continued double‑digit profit growth despite lingering risks.​