Art market update fall 2024: Opportunity knocks?

Table of contents

1. Art world trends
2. Q&A with Amanda Phingbodhipakkiya, winner of the Bank of America Artadia Award
3. Navigating the world of VAT
4. Curator’s Corner: Faith Ringgold’s Coming to Jones Road #3, Aunt Emmy
5. Bank of America-sponsored exhibitions and conservation projects

This season’s trends

Buyers could find opportunities at fall sales. Bidder competition at auction has slowed, meaning buyers may be able to purchase works more affordably than in recent years. Through the first half of 2024, auction prices came in at only 1% above their aggregated mid-estimates, the smallest uptick in over seven years.² Looking specifically at the marquee May auctions, 32% of lots sold fell below their low estimates, the highest percentage since COVID disrupted the spring sale schedule in 2020.³ In addition, resold lots in May 2024 generated an average annual return of only 4.6%, the lowest in at least five sale seasons.⁴

This downward trend is most noticeable for Emerging Art, a category comprising new works created by younger, early-career artists. Emerging Art boomed during the pandemic as young entrants to collecting scrambled to procure “wet paint” work. But the upper hand has since flipped. Sotheby’s “The Now” sale, an auction created during this period to showcase newly canonized artists, regularly saw record-breaking bidding wars in 2022. In the two years since, sale totals at “The Now” have fallen by 55%, with the price-to-estimate ratio dropping 26%, further indicating softness in this category.⁵

As the market cools, so do the once-staggering auction results. For example, María Berrío’s La Cena sold at Sotheby’s for $1.5 million in 2022. Christie’s offered the painting again in May 2024, this time for an estimate of $350,000 to $450,000. It sold for $441,000, a 71% decline in just two years.⁶ This is not to say that the category has fallen out of favor entirely; however, it does serve as a cautionary tale that illustrates the potential risk of buying and selling works of art over a short time horizon (let alone speculation with the goal of generating a quick profit).  

The primary market is adjusting to new realities. Galleries are facing a dilemma about how to price their primary market inventory. Dealers are often reluctant to cut prices, as doing so may demonstrate weakness in their artists’ markets. Nonetheless, buyers have been increasingly resisting high price points. For example, at the most recent Independent Art Fair in New York, most artwork was priced between $20,000 and $50,000, but average sales fell within the $10,000-to-$20,000 range.⁷ Fairs at the top end of the market also faced some hesitation. While Art Basel in Basel, Switzerland, consistently shows top-quality work with prices to match, Iwan Wirth of Hauser & Wirth described the fair as moving at a “more humane pace” this year, which could indicate slower sales, fewer waitlists, and buyers’ choice in terms of quality and price. If dealers don’t offer discounts, collectors may turn to auction, where prices have recently dipped below primary market prices for high-profile working artists such as Sterling Ruby and Pat Steir.⁸ If dealers cannot sell freshly produced artworks, they will likely end up with an excess of inventory. Savvy collectors will use this leverage when negotiating prices with galleries.

Do election years really impact the art market?  For the art world, the tension surrounding the U.S. presidential election has sparked concern about the auctions that follow in November. It’s understandable why. The fall marquee auctions contracted sharply in the past two presidential election years, and today’s market is already vulnerable, with auction totals in the first half of 2024 coming in at their lowest number since the pandemic shock of 2020.⁹ Uncertainty on the direction of fiscal and monetary policies that may affect art transactions and collectors’ ability to move and pay for art could complicate things further. And while auction houses seem confident on the number of consignments coming to market this fall, some argue that the outcome of the election — including the potential for an indeterminate or disputed result — may distract or cause hesitancy on the side of the buyer. It may also bear on the willingness of savvy buyers and sellers to transact until the policies of a new administration are clear.

But does uncertainty around election years cause the art market to underperform? The answer appears to rely more on the correlation with other concurrent macroeconomic drivers than on the presidential election itself. Looking beyond the past two cycles, November evening sale values rose 27% year over year in 2012 and 37% in 2004.¹⁰ In addition, the Artprice Global Art Market Index has risen in four of the six past election years, with the U.S.-specific index having outperformed the global index in five out of six of those years.¹¹

On the other hand, the art market declined in 2020¹² and 2008¹³  when the impacts of the COVID pandemic and the Great Recession, respectively, ravaged the U.S. and global economies. The uncertainty caused by the Brexit referendum and the free trade concerns that followed coincided with the art market decline in 2016. The current market softening, which began in 2023 with global geopolitical unrest, high inflation and interest rates affecting collectors, has spilled into 2024. Less marquee estate property in the May sales potentially also dampened bidders’ confidence and enthusiasm.¹⁴

As we look to the second half of the year, we expect auction houses and galleries will be more concerned with how collectors feel about their finances — whether that be the cost of borrowing or their investments’ returns — than about presidential elections.

Latin American artists are gaining momentum. The global art market has witnessed a rise in the visibility and valuation of Latin American and Latin diaspora artists as international collectors increasingly seek diverse and historically significant work. Sales in this sector have grown by 18% year over year and show no signs of slowing based on recent market activity and institutional support.¹⁵ Sotheby’s reported that sales of works by Latin American artists — both historical and Contemporary — have surged more than 50% above prepandemic years, exceeding $250 million between 2020 and 2023.¹⁶

This trend peaked with the record-breaking sale of a Surrealist masterpiece by British Mexican artist Leonora Carrington for $28.5 million this past May. In the same month, Christie’s auctioned the collection of prominent Cuban American collector Rosa de la Cruz, totaling over $34 million and setting records for Cuban artists Ana Mendieta and Félix González-Torres, whose sculpture Untitled (America #3) sold to the Pola Museum in Japan for $13.6 million. This purchase underscores a broader interest from international museums and cultural institutions worldwide to expand their collections and exhibitions with seminal Latin American art.

Paralleling this momentum on the auction block, biennales and art fairs are increasingly featuring Latin American artists. The São Paulo Biennial and ARCOmadrid, for example, have become critical primary market platforms and are rapidly growing following record attendance and sales this past year. We have also seen significant curatorial milestones, with the Whitney naming its own Marcela Guerrero as one of the 2026 Whitney Biennial curators.¹⁷ Guerrero made history last year as the museum’s first curator with a focus on Latin American art. This year, Adriano Pedrosa from Brazil became the Venice Biennale’s first-ever Latin American curator. Moreover, about one-third of the artists being showcased at the fair were born in Latin America, the largest number in the biennale’s history.¹⁸ With only increasing exposure to collectors and museumgoers from around the world, we expect this category’s momentum to continue well into 2025.

Trends in collector liquidity strategies. Over the last few years, the number of collectors who consider art as an asset class and part of their overall wealth strategy has increased. With the estimated value of art and collectibles expected to exceed $2.8 trillion by 2026, this category will make up approximately 11% of the portfolios of ultra-high-net-worth (UHNW) individuals.^19,20 This number will likely continue to grow since younger investors are almost two times as likely to own tangible assets than older cohorts.²¹ According to the 2024 Bank of America Private Bank Study of Wealthy Americans, 56% of collectors now consider their art as a part of their wealth management strategy, including 98% of younger collectors (millennials and Gen Z), who are, at higher rates than ever before, integrating art into their charitable giving (52%), tax planning (48%) and liquidity strategy (28%).

The younger generations, who will be both building wealth and stand to inherit $72 trillion²² over the next two decades, could spur interest in the art lending market. This market is currently estimated to be between $26 billion-to-$31 billion in loan value and expected to grow 8% this year.²³ Older generations will continue to use art loans for estate planning, to reallocate capital and to fund lifestyle expenses. In the meantime, collectors continue to borrow for many of the same reasons they always have: balance sheet arbitrage to raise dry powder to take advantage of timely opportunities, real estate financing and working capital. In fact, 80% of private banks say that the need for liquidity to finance business operations was a key driver of art loans.²⁴

Historically, art and collectibles on clients’ balance sheets were underserved by financial institutions due to lack of interest or in-house expertise. Now, a majority (63%) of wealth advisors have integrated art into their wealth management offering.²⁵ Especially now, in a falling interest-rate environment, UHNW collectors are turning to art loans as a liquidity strategy that alleviates pressure to sell pieces in a down market, avoids incurring capital gains taxes, mitigates margin call risk when borrowing against marketable securities and, best of all, allows borrowers to continue to enjoy the art pledged for the loan on their walls or lend it to museums for exhibition.

Can you tell us about yourself and how you came to your art practice?

I’m the daughter of Thai and Indo Chinese immigrants. I come from a long line of ancestors who experienced extraordinary upheaval and had to start anew from very humble beginnings with tenacious creativity. My roots stem from places of spirits, seaweed, swallows, salt and survival.

My artistic journey started early when my mother declared that she would no longer be accepting purchased gifts. Through this practice that emphasized sustainability and reuse in our household, she taught me how to transform materials, express emotion and build narrative into the things I made. She taught me how to show care with my hands, a tenet that is still essential to my practice today.

Your work often manifests in large-scale installations and public works. What does public art mean to you?

Everyone deserves profound, moving art. I’m interested in public art as a bridge between the contemporary art world and everyday communities who are seeking provocation, belonging and transcendence.

As a mixed Asian American, my lived experience has always been one that is suspended between worlds. I experienced a profound sense of isolation and disconnection growing up and sometimes still do as I negotiate my place between and across communities.

We have a word “ผูกพัน” (pronounced “phuk-pan”) in Thai that translates literally to “bind” or “entwine,” but it’s used to communicate a closeness between people, kinship among souls. String, knots, threads and braids feature prominently in my work because it is so much a part of my inheritance. We bind and entwine when our elders bless us, when we get married, go to the temple, in ancient customs that have made their way into sports like Muay Thai, in textiles and weaving. These practices ground our people and show us how we’re connected through shared rituals.

How has your practice evolved and what are some of the things you’re currently exploring through your work?

I love the scale of my public art installations because they compel people to stop and engage with the work. I spent 2020 to 2023 creating works that demand to be seen and heard. But I have also come to see the power and depth of smaller works where I invite audiences into intimate stories I want to tell, holding rituals with a close circle of participants.

In my practice, I’m interrogating the threads that bind us across time, culture, experiences and oceans. What connects us as kin. How the psychic impacts of colonialism and nationalism manifest in the lives and behaviors of its descendants generations later.

These days I feel called to invite audiences to slow down. To encourage listening, witnessing and a deepening of understanding. To provoke an unearthing inside each person who meets my work. I am exploring what it means to create art with the intensity of my building-sized pieces but in a form that people can live with in their homes.

When did you become aware of Artadia and what does their support mean to you?

Some of the artists I admire most, like Hank Willis Thomas, Nick Cave, Stephanie Syjuco, are Artadia winners. I’m so grateful that Artadia exists to help artists endure during pivotal moments in their careers.

Unrestricted awards in art are rare and really give artists the freedom to gain new perspectives, invest in unexplored ways of making and sustain our practices.

Your career and practice often involve advocacy and giving back to your community, whether through the I Still Believe in Our City commission or your position on the President’s Committee on the Arts and the Humanities. Can you tell us more about what this type of work means to you?

I consider it an enormous privilege to be an artist. I am always considering what I can offer as an artist through my practice to communities I am a part of and communities that I have the honor of partnering with, whether it’s sharing my wisdom with a class of MFA students, rebuking bias on behalf of AAPI communities, or speaking up for working artists as the only Southeast Asian, the only visual artist, and the youngest member of the President’s Committee. I bring all of the deeply meaningful experiences I’ve had with community members and fellow artists to these meetings and these discussions about policy decisions that impact the arts landscape.

By Michael Duffy, head of Art and Collectibles Planning, Private Wealth Strategic Wealth Advisor for Merrill, and Rosemary Ringwald, head of Art Planning, Planning Center of Excellence, Bank of America Private Bank

Our clients are increasingly purchasing art abroad, whether at art fairs or at auctions. The purchase and sale of fine art and collectibles can be subject to several different taxes including capital gains, sales and/or use tax assessed on a state level, and value-added tax (VAT), which can apply when purchasing art and collectibles outside of the U.S. With the art fairs in Paris and London top of mind, we wanted to provide a deep dive into VAT, what it is and what it means for art collectors. 

VAT is a consumption tax levied on goods and services purchased in most countries. For example, fine art and collectibles that are sold and/or imported into the European Union can be subject to VAT, which is usually charged as a percentage of the sales price. VAT must be paid by a buyer when art and collectibles are purchased from VAT-registered artists, galleries and auctions.

As of June 2023, 175 of the 193 countries with United Nations membership employed VAT. All EU countries have their own version of VAT. Each member country is responsible for setting its own rates. The U.S. does not have a VAT system; instead, it relies on state sales and use taxes. In Europe, if a U.S. resident purchases art and collectibles subject to VAT, they are entitled to a refund for that amount if they export the art and collectibles within three months of their purchase and file the requisite VAT refund documentation. If a U.S. resident purchases art subject to VAT, regardless of whether they are eligible for a VAT refund, if they ship the art back to the U.S. for their personal use, the purchase could also be subject to their state’s use tax. 

Note: The VAT rates in each country may vary depending on the sales price or threshold value of art imported.

The EU directive passed on April 5, 2022, aims to establish a unified EU-wide VAT system that would let member states set their own rates. The directive permits countries to apply reduced VAT rates as long as they are no lower than 5% of the full price of the item. By the end of 2024, member states are required to align their national laws with the new directive. 

A painter, mixed media sculptor, performance artist, writer and educator, Faith Ringgold was a pioneer in the feminist and Black art movements starting in the 1960s. Ringgold used the quilt rather than canvas as both a feminist interpretation as well as a long overdue reexamination — an insistence that the rich quilt-making tradition, particularly among Black women, be recognized as a legitimate artistic practice. 

Born in Harlem, Ringgold grew up surrounded by musicians and artists who came of age during the Harlem Renaissance. Her early paintings show the influence of the art she studied during her travels in Europe and West Africa as well as her interest in establishing an aesthetic that reflected her own life and times.

By the early 1980s, Ringgold began quilting with her mother; she soon replaced traditional canvas with these quilts and began incorporating narrative text she had written into her paintings. The following is inscribed around the edge of the central panel of Coming to Jones Road #3, Aunt Emmy:

Through her vibrant story quilts, Ringgold highlights the experiences and struggles of Black women, celebrating their strength, resilience and cultural heritage. Her innovative use of quilting and storytelling revolutionized the art world by bridging the gap between fine art and craft traditions.

This unique work is now featured in our Art in Our Communities© exhibition “Vision & Spirit: Black Artists in the Bank of America Collection.”