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Capital Market Outlook

March 23, 2020

IN THIS ISSUE

  • Macro Strategy: Shock and Oil — Oil companies and countries are rebalancing for the next few decades. Consolidation and persistent volatility in the energy space should be expected. Industry focused fiscal aid is possible but may only add to the supply glut.
  • Global Market View: Bear Statistics: Lessons from Past Downturns for the COVID-19 Bear Market — Though the current downturn clearly comes amid a unique set of circumstances, a look at previous bear markets may give some indication as to what investors might expect this time around.
  • Thought of the Week: The Bane Toward the Basics: The Shifting Mood of the U.S. Consumer — As the number of reported cases of COVID-19 have spiked in the U.S., the attitude of U.S. consumers has darkened considerably, shifting our gross domestic product forecast and cutting S&P 500 earnings-per-share estimates for 2020.​

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