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Capital Market Outlook

March 2, 2020


  • Macro Strategy — Productivity Trend Up — Economists do not agree on what caused the economy’s dismal productivity performance between 2010-2016, and have been particularly baffled since it occurred during a period of rapid technological progress. They have also been surprised by its recent improving trend.
  • Global Market View — Supply, Demand and Dollar Shock: The Triple Threat to U.S. Companies’ Foreign Earnings — Given growing Covid-19 virus risks, the global backdrop for U.S. foreign earnings appears to be deteriorating once again.
  • Thought of the Week — How Do You Price the Unknown? A Volatility Spike Illustrates the Challenge At these elevated volatility levels of measured risk, the hurdle for market conditions to worsen is also higher, and the slope of volatility forward curves suggests lower expectations for uncertainty down the line

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