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Capital Market Outlook

March 29, 2021


  • Macro Strategy — Helicopter Money Delivers Escape Velocity: If nominal growth continues to move higher and higher, zero interest rates could become more and more stimulative and inconsistent with well-anchored inflation expectations.
  • Global Market View — Four Supports for 2021: Consumer, Vaccines, CAPEX and Policy: We’ve drafted our four picks that we suspect will likely provide support to markets and the economy over the balance of the year, with the greatest potential upside surprises around the 1. consumer recovery, 2. capital expenditures (CAPEX) outlook, 3. ongoing coronavirus vaccine rollout, and 4. supportive monetary and fiscal policy. The confluence of these factors underpins our outlook— and while certainly not our base case, we’ve included some potential upsets to each pick.
  • Thought of the Week — Renewables have the Power for a Comeback: Headwinds for renewables could prove to be transitory in light of longer-term supportive trends.

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